With just two weeks to play in the NFL season, division and Wild Card races are red hot. In the NFC, nine teams are still in contention for five remaining spots while over in the AFC, 12 teams are still in the hunt for three spots.
What has been decided in the AFC through 15 weeks is no surprise. Three teams, Denver (AFC West), Indianapolis (AFC South) and New England (AFC East) each won its division last weekend. Over in the NFC, only the surprising Arizona Cardinals have secured a playoff berth.
However, the Pats, Colts and Broncos still have a lot left to play for in the next two weeks. Both New England and Denver can secure first-round byes this week, and the Patriots can also clinch home field advantage. Arizona can clinch the NFC West, a first-round bye and home-field advantage this week. The Cards will have it earned if they can get past the red hot Seahawks at home in Arizona.
While 21 teams still have a shot to make the playoffs, some of these teams have a better chance than others. Fans and prognosticators will be keeping a close eye on what happens in the AFC North this weekend.
All three teams can clinch a playoff berth this weekend with a win and some help. Cincinnati (9-4-1 vs Denver), Baltimore (9-5 @Houston) and Pittsburgh (9-5 vs Kansas City) remain in contention for the AFC North division title. The Bengals and Steelers, who meet in Week 17, are in control of their fate in the division race.
TEAM OVERALL DIV. CONF. STRENGTH OF VICTORY STRENGTH OF SCHED.
Cincinnati 9-4-1 3-2 6-4 389 467
Pittsburgh 9-5 3-2 7-3 452 429
Baltimore 9-5 2-3 5-5 361 467
The division has clearly benefited from playing the NFC and AFC South this season. They are a combined 12-2-1 vs. the NFC South and 10-5 vs the AFC’s version. Playing each other this season, the division is 10-10 and are 1-4 vs the AFC East and 1-1 vs the AFC West.
Needing only a win, the Bengals have the easiest path to a playoff berth, with Pittsburgh next followed by Baltimore. Cincy locks up their fourth straight playoff appearance with a win at home Monday Night vs. the Broncos, which is easier said than done. The Steelers can also clinch a playoff berth with a win while the Ravens need a win and some help.
Baltimore clinches a playoff spot with:
1) BAL win + PIT loss + CIN loss OR
2) BAL win + KC loss or tie + SD loss or tie OR
3) BAL tie + KC loss + SD loss + BUF loss or tie
In the NFC, the Lions, Packers, Seahawks and Saints all have an opportunity to earn playoff berths. Detroit (@ Chicago) needs a win and a Packers loss. Green Bay (@ Tampa Bay) needs a win and a lot of help this weekend. The Seahawks @ Arizona) can earn a shot to defend their Super Bowl title with a win and six combinations of other teams winning or tying in their games. The Saints, who host the Falcons on Sunday, enter the weekend with a 6-8 record but can win the dismal NFC South win a win and Carolina Panthers loss.
KEEPING THE STREAK ALIVE:
There were five new playoff teams in 2013: Carolina, Kansas City, New Orleans, Philadelphia and San Diego. Since the 12-team playoff format was adopted in 1990, at least four teams have qualified for the playoffs in every season that were not in the postseason the year before. For a 24th consecutive season, it appears that streak will stay alive. None of the three teams that clinched in the AFC to this point are new but in the NFC, Arizona finished 10-6 last season but missed the playoffs. According to Football Outsiders.com, the Ravens & Steelers have an 87.6 and 81.5 percent respectively of making the post season. The two AFC North teams would likely replace the Chiefs and Chargers who have a 34 and 10 percent chance according their odds.
In the NFC, the Panthers and 49ers were both playoff participants in 2013, it appears the Lions (88.9) and Cowboys (86.1) will replace them. Ironically, if the season had ended following Monday night’s game, all four division winner in the AFC would be repeat winners. In the NFC, all four would be new winners, as the Eagles, Packers, Panthers and Seahawks won their respective divisions in 2013. They would be replaced by Dallas, Detroit, New Orleans and Arizona in 2014.
COACH OF THE YEAR:
While many votes for the NFL Coach of the year award will be flying towards Bruce Arians of the Arizona Cardinal and rightfully so, Buffalo Bills head coach Doug Marrone should garner serious consideration. With an 8-6 record, the Bills are currently very much in the thick of the playoff hunt. Their defense may not be the best in the league statistically but it’s hard to argue they simply aren’t the best. Keep in mind their QB is Kyle Orton.
Ranked fifth overall (9th vs rush 5th vs pass) the Bills have shut down some of the league’s top signal callers this season and done so with a resounding thud. On Sunday, Buffalo defeated Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers. The league’s premier passer completed only 17 of 42 passes in the Packers’ 21-13 loss. That was Rodgers’ career-high for incomplete and intercepted passes in one game (25). It was also the first game in Rodgers’ NFL career in which he threw more than one interception and no TD passes. (He was picked off twice.). It is also worth pointing out that the Packers entered the game with 19 total drops by their pass catchers this season. They had seven on Sunday in Buffalo.
Doug Marrone of the Bills deserves COTY consideration
Ralph Wilson Stadium has been a late-season House of Horrors for visiting quarterbacks. Since 2000, the Bills have hosted 31 games there in December and January, in which only one opposing QB passed for at least 300 yards: Tom Brady (329 yards, 2 TD, 2 Int in 2005). Bills opponents have collectively thrown more interceptions (33) than touchdown passes (24) in those games.
In Week 14 on the road Buffalo held Peyton Manning without a touchdown ending his streak at 51 games with at least one touchdown pass. Manning threw for just 173 yards and completed just 14 passes, his fewest completions in a game in almost seven seasons. He had just 13 completions against Baltimore (12/7/07). He also was picked off twice in the game against the Bills. His passer rating against the Buffalo (56.9) was the lowest in six seasons with a rating of 46.8 against Cleveland (11/30/08) the only figure worse than the one against the Bills in Week 14.
Buffalo is still in the AFC playoff hunt at 8-6 and has two significant AFC conference games left on their regular season schedule at Oakland and at New England. Though the Bills are focused on the Raiders first and foremost, the conclusion of their run through a gauntlet of perennial Pro Bowl quarterbacks in December will come in Week 17 when they face Tom Brady for the second time this season.
The Patriots won the first matchup 37-22 in Buffalo.
The last time the Bills faced three different quarterbacks with three or more Pro Bowl appearances in a four-week span was from Nov. 24, 1994 – Dec. 4, 1994, when Buffalo played Dave Krieg (DET), Dan Marino (MIA) and Warren Moon (MIN).
SPEAKING OF RODGERS:
Three of the four Packers losses have come to teams ranked in the Top 5 in total defense in the NFL. Green Bay lost to Seattle (no.1), Detroit (no.2) and Buffalo (no.5) scoring just 36 combined points in all three contests. The Packers have scored 36 or more points in a single game six times this season. Rodgers has just two TD’s while tossing three interceptions vs the tough defensive foes and while his completion percentage is 68.2 percent, he has failed to pass for at least 200 yards in any of those games.
Should Packers fans be concerned? The answer is yes—-The Lions and Seahawks will likely be in the playoffs and even if GB avoids playing them, tough defensive football is a playoff trademark. The Cardinals and Cowboys aren’t ranked high defensively but both teams have shown a propensity to shut down some potent offenses in 2014. If the Packers are going to be successful, they will need to rely on Eddie Lacey a bit more once the second season arrives. Running the ball successfully and playing tough defense is a formula that has proven to be highly effective once January arrives.
PATRIOT GAMES:
The more things change the more they stay the same in the NFL. The New England Patriots continue to roll. Remember when the Chiefs blew them out on Monday Night Football, 41-14 in Week 4? The loss dropped the Pats to 2-2 and the national media proclaimed the Brady-Belichick era finished. Since that night, New England is 9-1 (only loss to Packers in Green Bay) and have outscored their opponents 362-190, averaging 36.2 points per game.
On Sunday NE avenged an opening-day loss at Miami with a 41-13 victory over the Dolphins. With that win, New England not only clinched their sixth straight AFC East title but also set an NFL record by going 14 straight seasons without suffering a multiple-game regular-season sweep by any team. The previous record was set by Tom Landry’s Cowboys from 1971 to 1983, playing in what was then a five-team NFC East.
THE BERMUDA TRIANGLE:
The Bermuda Triangle, also known as the Devil’s Triangle, is a loosely defined region in the western part of the North Atlantic Ocean, where a number of aircraft and ships are said to have disappeared under mysterious circumstances. The triangle’s three vertices are in Miami, Florida—San Juan, Puerto Rico and in the mid-Atlantic island of Bermuda. What does any of this have to do with football you ask—nothing but it appears the triangle has moved 300 miles west and its three vertices now encompass Miami, Jacksonville and Tampa Bay. Instead of ships and aircraft, the triangle now consumes the NFL teams of Florida and their playoff hopes.
The last Florida team to make the playoffs was the Miami Dolphins in 2008, who lost to the Ravens. The last Florida team to win a playoff game was the Jacksonville Jaguars, who beat the Steelers in 2007. For good measure, the Buccaneers have not won a playoff game since winning the Super Bowl in 2002 and if you think that’s a long time, the Dolphins last won a playoff game on December 30, 2000 when they beat the Indianapolis Colts in overtime on the legs of Lamar Smith, who rushed 40 times for 209 yards. None of the three teams will make the playoffs this season and the three of them have a combined record of 11-31 in 2014. It is also highly likely that Miami and Tampa Bay will once again be looking for new head coaches. The Miami Herald reported that Joe Philbin has an 80 percent chance of being fired. What!!!
Speaking of head coaches, since 2000, the three teams have combined to employee 17 different sideline walkers. The Dolphins lead the way with seven. There is hope in Jacksonville as the drafted a franchise QB in last year’s draft but questions have been raised about Ryan Tannehill in Miami, whom the Dolphins selected in round one, eighth overall in the 2012 NFL Draft. The Buccaneers are the likely leading candidate to draft this year’s hot college quarterback, Heisman Trophy winner Marcus Mariota.
SPEAKING OF TURMOIL:
The San Francisco 49ers continue to reel in turmoil. The Niners have released defensive end Ray McDonald, following the San Jose Police Department announcement that McDonald is being investigated for a possible sexual assault. General Manager Trent Baalke announced today the team has decided to cut McDonald. Baalke made the announcement during a Wednesday news conference at the 49ers’ facility. Baalke cited a “pattern of behavior” in the team’s decision to cut ties with the former third-round pick.
“I can say that we have had multiple discussions with Ray over time and there’s been things that have been discussed with him,” Baalke said. “And there was a plan that was put in place and this is a situation that has gone against that plan.”
According to police, the woman connected with the investigation told police she was “possibly” sexually assaulted by McDonald, who has had several run-ins with the law since entering the NFL in 2007. No arrests have been made in the current investigation and no charges have been filed.
On the field, San Fran will miss the playoffs for the first time during the Jim Harbaugh era. Harbaugh is himself involved in a bit of controversy at the moment. Multiple NFL and Michigan sources had said for weeks that Harbaugh was not expected to wind up at Michigan, as the head coach of the Wolverines but in recent days at least one person familiar with his thinking said he was at least “considering it.” According to multiple reports, Michigan has made a six-year, $49 million offer to Harbaugh. The offer was earlier reported by CBS5 in Arizona.
The annual average pay of $8.17 million would make Harbaugh the highest-paid college football coach, surpassing Alabama’s Nick Saban by more than $1.21 million.
The Niners offense has been less than stellar at times and fourth year QB Colin Kaepernick seems to have regressed in 2014. San Francisco ranks 27th overall in the NFL in total yards on offense with the passing attack ranking one spot lower at 28th. The former Nevada star will pass for a career high in yards this season but needs five TD passes to surpass last season’s total of 21. He’s thrown 10 INT’s, which is two more than he tossed last season and he’s been sacked 39 times in 14 games compared to just 16 in all of 2013.
ROOKIE RECEIVERS:
Four rookie wide receivers – the New York Giants’ Odell Beckham Jr… (972), Carolina’s Kelvin Benjamin (952), Tampa Bay’s Mike Evans (948) and Buffalo’s Sammy Watkins (850) – are approaching the 1,000-yard receiving mark.
Rookie WR Mike Evans
If at least three rookie wide receivers reach 1,000 yards this season, 2014 will have the most rookie wide receivers with 1,000+ receiving yards of any season in NFL history. The 1986 season is the only season in NFL history to have two rookie receivers reach the mark – Indianapolis’ Bill Brooks (1,131) and Houston Oilers’ Ernest Givens (1,062).
PLAYERS of the WEEK:
In the AFC, Cincinnati Bengals RB Jeremy Hill was offensive player of the week. Hill rushed for 148 yards on 25 carries (5.9 average) and two touchdowns in the Bengals’ 30-0 win at Cleveland. His 148 rushing yards were the most of any NFL player in Week 15, and his two rushing scores tied for the most in the league.
On defense, Broncos CB Aqib Talib won the honor, as he had eight tackles, an interception and three passes defensed in the Broncos’ division-clinching 22-10 win at San Diego. With 4:27 remaining in the fourth quarter, Talib intercepted a short pass over the middle to help set up a 44-yard field goal by Connor Barth that gave the Broncos a 22-10 lead and capped the scoring.
Your Week 15 AFC special team’s player of the week resides in Kansas City. Former Oregon Duck RB/PR DeAnthony Thomas returned eight punts for 156 yards (19.5 average), including an 81-yard punt-return touchdown, in the Chiefs’ 31-13 win against Oakland. His 81-yard punt-return touchdown, which opened the scoring against the Raiders, was Thomas’ first NFL return touchdown.
Over in the NFC, Dallas Cowboys WR Dez Bryant continues to show why he will cost more than owner Jerry Jones may be willing to pay. With six catches for 114 yards and three touchdowns in the Cowboys’ 38-27 primetime victory at Philadelphia with first place in the NFC East on the line, Bryant won the OFPOTW award. The win moved Dallas into sole possession of first place in the division with two games to play. Bryant had touchdown catches of four, 26 and 25 yards. His third touchdown gave Dallas a 35-24 lead with 12:48 remaining in the fourth quarter. He leads the league with 13 touchdown receptions, tying his career-high set last year. Since 2012, Bryant leads the NFL with 38 receiving touchdowns. He is the only player in the league with at least 12 receiving touchdowns in each of the past three seasons.
On defense, safety Glover Quinn of the Lions had an interception, a 56-yard return and three tackles, including one for a loss, in the Lions’ 16-14 win over Minnesota. The Lions improved to 10-4 and moved into a tie for first place in the NFC North with two weeks remaining in the regular season. With the Lions trailing 14-0 in the second quarter and the Vikings driving in Detroit territory, Quinn intercepted a pass and returned it 56 yards to the Minnesota 11-yard line. Two plays later, the Lions scored a touchdown to cut the deficit in half.
And on special teams, Arizona Cardinals kicker, Chandler Catanzaro converted all four field-goal attempts, scoring all of Arizona’s points in the Cardinals’ 12-6 win at St. Louis. Arizona tied a franchise record with its 11th win and is the first NFC team to clinch a playoff berth. He made field goals of 23, 44, 51 and 46 yards. It marked the second time this season he kicked four field goals in a game without a miss (Week 2). Catanzaro is the first rookie in team history to score 100 points (103).
WILL JOHNNY BE GOOD?
On Sunday Manziel was Johnny Backfoot
The Bengals spoiled Johnny Manziel’s first NFL start, routing the Browns, 30-0. That was the worst shutout loss in a quarterback’s first NFL start since 2000, when Spergon Wynn was the QB in Cleveland’s 48-0 loss at Jacksonville. Browns fans might take some consolation from the fact that two quarterbacks who went on to successful careers with Cleveland suffered bad shutout losses in their first NFL start: Frank Ryan for the L.A. Rams in 1959 (34-0 at San Francisco), and Bill Nelsen for the Steelers in 1964 (30-0 against the Redskins). Manziel passed for only 80 yards and threw two interceptions in Cleveland’s loss on Sunday. He was the first quarterback with at least two Int’s and fewer than 100 yards in his first NFL start since 2005. Again, room for optimism: The last QB to do so was Alex Smith.
*******BREAKING NEWS*******
According to ESPN’s Adam Schefter, the Chicago Bears plan to start Jimmy Clausen at quarterback this week over Jay Cutler. Cutler has struggled this season in leading the Bears to a 5-9 record. In Monday’s 31-15 loss to the New Orleans Saints, he threw two touchdowns but had three interceptions to bring his NFL-leading turnover total to 24. He produced a season-low passer rating of 55.8 and generated a total ESPN QBR of 6.8, which registered as his second-worst performance of the season in that category (he had a 6.0 QBR in Week 10 against the Green Bay Packers). He also was sacked seven times against the Saints.
Cutler is the highest-paid offensive player in the NFL this season at $22.5 million. Coach Marc Trestman informed him Wednesday morning that Clausen would get the start, sources told ESPN senior NFL analyst Chris Mortensen.
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